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☆ China's chances of staging an economic rebound this year look slim
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China faces severe real estate woes, deflation, and an exodus of global investors. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe world has yet to witness any post-pandemic rebound in China, and Wall Street expects little to change in 2024. The ongoing exodus of global investors is evidence the bear case is intact, and the country's real estate sector continues to look more and more precarious. AdvertisementThat in turn has cratered sentiment, as Chinese households have the majority of their wealth tied to real estate.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Mike Edwards, Weiss, haven't, Edwards, Tracy Chen, Chen, Caesar Maasry, Goldman Sachs, Maasry Organizations: Service, Wall, Tech, Baidu, US, Business, Brandywine, Supply, Seng China Enterprises, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing

☆ After a banner 2023, the market faces a tough challenge for a repeat performance
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since 1928, the S & P 500 has finished up 20% or more about 36% of the time. Yes, 2022 was down about 19%, but the S & P has posted declines of 10% or more only 12% of the time since 1928. Could the S & P gain 20% again in 2024? That run from 1995 to 1999 was certainly epic, but that was the last time the S & P 500 saw back-to-back 20% gains. Regardless, with the S & P 500 closing the year at 4,769, a 20% gain next year would mean the S & P would hit 5,722.

Persons: Ben Carlson, Jessica Rabe, Nicholas Colas, Tom Lee, John Stoltzfus Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Management, DataTrek Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Oppenheimer Asset Management

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ Hedge funds have lost $43 billion trying to short the market as the S&P 500 eyes its best month in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund short sellers have lost $43 billion in recent days as stocks rally, the Financial Times reported. The S&P 500 is on track for its best month since July 2022. With a more than 7% gain in November, the S&P 500 is on pace for its best month since July 2022. AdvertisementThe FT notes that analysts say some hedge funds have had to repurchase stocks to cover their short bets as a "short squeeze" pushed share prices even higher. According to S3 data, bets against technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary were the most painful for hedge funds.

Persons: —, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Wednesday Financial, S3 Partners, Federal Reserve, Carnival Corp

☆ History shows the S&P 500 sees double-digit growth the year after the Fed is done hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If that's the case, it could mean the S&P 500 can swing up by double-digits in the next year. The end of a rate hike cycle in January 1995 saw the S&P 500 jump 35.2% in the year after. Put those together, and the average growth in the S&P 500 after a rate top is 17.4%. AdvertisementAs for what happens to stocks after the central bank cuts interest rates, Rabe wrote that returns are "mixed" in the months that follow. "By contrast, rapid monetary and fiscal policy responses to the Pandemic Crisis helped US equities recover much quicker," Rabe wrote.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Jessica Rabe, Rabe, Jeremy Siegal Organizations: Service, Fed

☆ A key historical indicator says the latest stock market rally is poised to push on through the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500's sector correlations suggest the current rally can go to year-end, DataTrek Research said. The indicator is a sign of investor confidence, and it's hovering near levels seen around bull markets of the past. AdvertisementThe stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. "When [investors] see clear skies ahead, correlations tend to be low as they pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks," Colas and Rabe said. When correlations hover above that level, stocks tend to be under pressure; when they are below, stocks tend to rally like they did in 2020-2021, and between January and July of this year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Research, Service

☆ ETFs that track meme stocks have been surging, as 'animal spirits' return to markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Recession fears appear to be cooling among US companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mentions of inflation were down to 55% of companies in the third quarter, down from a peak of 83% in 2022. Taken together, the "recession" and "inflation" mentions points to moderating, but still persistent unease among companies. "Stocks have shrugged off recession fears, but they remain elevated at many companies. But they also note that the still-elevated mentions of inflation and recession don't necessarily bode poorly for stock performance. Big Wall Street firms are mixed in their outlook for the economy next year.

Persons: —, disinflation, DataTrek, DataTrek cofounders Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe, bode, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Research, Wall Street, Wall, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: America

☆ The hype in AI stocks isn't a bubble yet, and little buy in from retail investors means there's room for more upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The research firm said retail investors have yet to pile into AI stocks and fuel a bubble frenzy like they did during the pandemic. "Interest in 'tech stock' is nowhere near levels reached during the Pandemic Era speculative tech bubble," DataTrek said. "Interest in 'tech stock' is nowhere near levels reached during the Pandemic Era speculative tech bubble," DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe said. In other words, not enough retail investors have been sucked into these Big Tech stocks yet to indicate a bubble," Rabe said. "On the plus side, there's not enough retail interest to indicate a bubble is forming, and there's a lot more room for retail investors to get involved in these names."

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Artificial intelligence gives real boost to U.S. stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - Recent advances in artificial intelligence are fueling optimism over how businesses can operate more productively in the years ahead. They are also providing a big boost to the stock market. About 25% to 50% of those gains are owed to "the buzz around artificial intelligence," she noted. Indeed, optimism over AI is a key factor supporting a stock market facing numerous headwinds. His firm owns shares of Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet.

☆ There are 2 things needed to sustain this year's blistering rally in tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It said a further rally needs continued profitability at tech companies and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday closed at a year-to-date high, at 12,500.57, and it's up more than 19% since the start of the year. While Federal Reserve anticipates a "mild recession" starting later this year, policymakers have indicated they won't begin cutting interest rates until 2024. High interest rates can hurt the potential value of future profit at growth companies. DataTrek said the Fed battling hot inflation "was not a factor during the winning years," it had outlined for the Nasdaq Composite.

☆ ChatGPT can't answer basic questions about markets and investing and it'll be a long time before its a useful tool for investors, DataTrek says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

ChatGPT's market and investing knowledge is spotty, and the bot isn't a good tool for investors yet, DataTrek said. The firm asked the chatbot seven questions related to markets, and some of its answers were vague or incorrect. In a note on Friday, the research firm tested the capabilities of the trendy AI tool, asking it seven questions related to markets and investing. The chatbot refused to answer four questions, and it incorrectly or vaguely answered two other questions, the firm said. "Generative AI has a long way to go before proving useful in the financial services industry or as a tool for individual investors.

☆ Be cautious on Big Tech stocks even though the Nasdaq has been beating the S&P 500 so far in 2023, DataTrek says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Nasdaq has outperformed the S&P 500 to start the year by a significant margin. When the Nasdaq beats the S&P 500 by 5 points or more over 50 days, underperformance has followed. In 2023, the Nasdaq is up roughly 10.6%, while the S&P 500 is up about 4%. In every instance, the Nasdaq then went on to underperform the S&P 500, they said. They've had a great relative run versus the S&P 500, "but +12 years of market history says it is time to be more cautious," DataTrek said.

☆ These are the top 10 holdings of the AI-driven investment fund powered by Watson that has been crushing the market this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The AI Powered Equity ETF has doubled the performance of the S&P 500 so far in 2023. These are the top 10 holdings in the AI Powered Equity ETF that's driven by IBM's Watson. One ETF has been utilizing aspects of artificial intelligence to drive its investment decisions since its launch in 2017: the AI Powered Equity ETF. These are the top 10 holdings in the AI Powered Equity ETF that's driven by IBM's Watson supercomputer. Norwegian Cruise Line HoldingsTicker: NCLH% of ETF: 1.9%Industry: Cruise Ships6.

☆ Investors won't see big returns on stocks 2023 if a Santa rally doesn't happen before the new year.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down about 19% on the year, and those losses could spill over into the new year if stocks don't see the usual holiday rally. But if the S&P 500 misses that final rally, that bodes poorly for rebound odds in 2023. The lack of a holiday rally so far suggests that more rocky markets await when the calendars change. Recall that while the S&P 500 tumbled 37% in 2008, it rebounded 26% in 2009. What's your stock market outlook for 2023?

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